● Premium betting metric · Updated hourly

Consistency Index™

A proprietary 0–100 score measuring how reliably each team performs versus the market's expectations. High CI™ = tight floor, predictable team. Low CI™ = boom-or-bust.

See the rankings How it's calculated
Updated May 15 · 8:15 am

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How the Consistency Index™ is calculated

The Consistency Index measures how reliably a team performs against the market's closing expectations, not how good the team is in absolute terms. An Elite defensive club can earn a low CI™ if its outcomes swing wildly against the spread — and a middling team can earn a high CI™ if its results cluster tightly around the number.

Every score is a 0–100 normalization of three components, re-computed after each fixture:

  1. ATS variance — standard deviation of each game's cover margin versus the closing spread. Tighter distribution → higher score.
  2. Total variance — the same calculation applied to game totals (Over/Under closing line vs actual). Penalizes boom-or-bust offensive or defensive nights.
  3. Recency weight — the most recent block of games (last 10 for NBA, last 5 for MLS) is weighted 2× the earlier season sample, so a team's trajectory shows up in its score.

The three components are combined into a single 0–100 score where 100 represents the tightest observed variance across our multi-season dataset and 0 represents the most volatile. We then bucket teams into four trust tiers:

  • High Trust (80–100) — outcomes cluster tight, the market has a correct read.
  • Reliable (60–79) — above average; bet the side with confidence when the line agrees.
  • Volatile (40–59) — mixed profile; prefer totals or live markets when the CI is in this range.
  • Disruptive (0–39) — boom-or-bust; the team is as likely to cover by 20 as to lose by 20. Under/overs and live betting are usually better plays.

What the Consistency Index does not tell you — it is not a power rating. A Disruptive team can be a top-5 outfit in raw talent. Use it to calibrate how much to trust the market's line, not to decide which team is better.

Scores are refreshed hourly from the public schedule + closing-line archive. Source data comes from the NBA and MLS official APIs; we do not include exhibition games in the sample.

Frequently asked questions

Is a higher Consistency Index better?

Not automatically. A high CI™ means outcomes are predictable against the market — which is useful when the spread agrees with your read. It does not imply the team is better than a lower-CI™ opponent. Use it alongside power ratings, injury news, and line movement.

How often is the data updated?

Every hour. A snapshot is regenerated after the last scheduled game of the night and whenever a closing spread is revised. The table header shows the exact last-updated timestamp.

Why do some teams show "N/A"?

A team needs a minimum sample (10 games for NBA, 5 for MLS) before we publish a score. Early in a season — or for expansion teams — you will see N/A until the sample threshold is reached.

What is the difference between the Season score and the Recent score?

Season aggregates all eligible games in the current campaign, weighted evenly. Recent is the trailing window (10 games NBA, 5 games MLS) and moves faster when a team's profile changes — e.g. after a trade, coaching swap, or injury to a core rotation piece.

Can I use the CI™ inside a parlay?

Yes, as a filter. A common pattern is to include only legs where both teams sit at Reliable (60+) or above, which keeps the parlay away from the legs most likely to swing against the number. Keep in mind that parlay pricing already bakes in correlation assumptions — the CI™ is a sanity check, not a pricing tool.